Can Pakistan do nuclear attack on India due to Pahalgam conflict?

 

Pakistan's 130 Nukes are aimed on India. Saying this recently, Hanif Abbasi, a minister of Pakistan, has threated India."Ghauri, Shaheen, Ghaznavi, these 130 nuclear weapons are only made for India". He says that if India stops Indus water supply, they will start nuclear war against India. Pakistan's defence minister threatens nuclear response to India's 'imminent military incursion'

 

To Start A Nuclear War with India Three Aspects Should Be Seen:

 

1. Can Pakistan afford it Nationally?

2. Can Pakistan afford it Internationally?

3. Can Pakistan afford that legally?

 

ØCan Pakistan afford it Nationally?

       Pakistan conducted six nuclear tests on May 28,1998, inside a deeply dug tunnel in the remote Chaghi mountain of Balochistan province, as tit-for-tat response to India’s nuclear tests in the same month at the Indian Army’s Pokhran Test Range and became world’s first Islamic nation to have nuclear power. China helped Pakistan by giving them nuclear technology, backing them financially, technology for Uranium Enrichment, designs for making bomb, missile launchers.

 

TO MAKE A NUCLEAR WEAPON IT HAS 4 STAGES

1.   Strong Financial Backing

        In 1974, Pakistan started Project 706 which is to make nuclear bomb, Libya paid Qadeer $100m in nuke deal and further Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistan nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs.

2.   Designs for uranium enrichment and technology

       Dr khan stole the designs, Dutch investigators found, and he fled back to Pakistan in 1976. He used the blueprints and his knowledge to set up an enrichment project in Kahuta, near Islamabad, that reported directly to the prime minister. He drew heavily on Dutch lists of nearly 100 companies that supplies centrifuge parts and materials.

3.   Designs for making a bomb

       China gave their tried and tested CHIC-4 bomb design, which was first tested in 1966 to Pakistan and also given permission to test their nuclear missile on their land.

4.   Missile launcher

       North Korea helped Pakistan by giving their missile launchers same as used in their ‘Nodong missile’.

Ø Can Pakistan afford it Internationally?

To Make Any Nuclear Action Pak Needs To Follow Following Protocols By NCBMs (Nuclear Confidence Building Measures)

-      Agreement on the prohibition of Attack Against Nuclear Installation (1988, effective 1991)

·     Refrain from any actions causing harm to nuclear installations or facilities in other state, broadly defined to cover various aspects of the nuclear fuel

·     Information about the latitude and longitude of nuclear installations annually on the 1^st of January.

-      Agreement on Advance Notification of Military Exercises, Manoeuvres and Troop Movements (1991)

-      Lahore Declaration (1999)

-      Advance Notification of Ballistic Missile Tests (2005)

·     Provide advanced notification to other state about any planned flight tests on land or sea-launched surface-to-surface ballistic missiles. Notification should be given no less then three days before the commencement of a five-day launch window for such tests.

-      Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons (2007)

-      DGMO Hotline Communication Mechanism

 

HENCE IND OR PAK BOTH COULD NOT MAKE ANY NUCLEAR ACTION WITHOUT FOLLOWING THIS PROTOCOLS.

Ø Can Pakistan afford that legally?

       If Pakistan tries to make any actions like nuclear war without following any protocol then,

1.   Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) members will pass the approval to the prime minister.

2.   Pakistan has “non-mated” missiles which means bomb, missile and launch site are at different places. For eg. If they try to attack on India, they have to transport bomb from Dera Ghazi Nuclear Complex to Taranawa missile complex which is 569.22 Km distant long route. This will be leading to heavy movement and can be identified by neighbouring countries. Which can led the allegations on Pakistan to break the protocol.